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Your Business Will Mature. Then What?

  • Writer: Stratwell Partners
    Stratwell Partners
  • Nov 16, 2025
  • 3 min read

You know that feeling when your usual playbook stops working quite as well? When winning a deal suddenly means dropping your price, or when you're drafting a farewell message for another top sales person?


These aren't just rough patches—they're signals. And they're actually good news, because they mean you've arrived at what management philosopher Charles Handy calls your "second curve moment". It's the point where your current business model is maturing, and you have an opportunity to strategize your next move while you still have the time, resources, and energy to kick it into gear.


First vs. second curves (with examples)



Your first curve is your current products and lines of service. You had an idea, developed it, and you grew. Nividia started as a graphics chipmaker for gaming. Nokia was a paper mill. Netflix mailed you DVDs.


Then Nvidia went all-in with full-stack computer infrastructure that's leading the artifical intelligence revolution; Nokia diversified into rubber boots, cables, then finally cell phones; and Netflix started streaming movies online. Today Nvidia represents approximately 8% of the S&P 500, making it the largest single component and creating a historically high concentration in the index and Netflix is a content producer whose name is now a verb describing an activity in almost every American household.


So your second curve is the next business model you develop before the first curve declines. Second curves come out of smart, aspirational thinking, which day-to-day life gets in the way of. And that means for middle-market CEOs working in their business instead of on it, second curves are invisible; the entry point gets missed. (Ultimately Nokia didn’t keep up with smartphones and fell off.)


See what's draining CEO time and how to fix it.


Signs your second curve has arrived


Here are some signs it’s time to think about your second curve:


You can only win on price. It’s harder to find a selling stance that’s meaningful to your customers, unique to you, and defensible against competitors. The truth is, several companies can now solve your customer's problem just as well as you can.


Customer loyalty feels fragile. Your clients are always looking for ever-better products and services, and you’re noticing more new technologies in headlines and early adopters’ hands. Churn is going up and retention is taking more effort than it used to.


Your best employees are slowly leaving. Top talent gravitates toward companies with momentum and clear futures. They want to see where they're headed and feel confident in the trajectory. If you're struggling to hire or keep your stars engaged, they may be sensing something you haven't fully articulated yet.


If any of this sounds familiar, take a breath. This isn't a crisis—it's a strategic moment. You've successfully ridden your first curve, and now you have a choice to make about what comes next.


Why second curves are easy to miss


Here's the tricky part: second curves require the kind of smart, aspirational thinking that daily operations crowd out. For middle-market CEOs working in their business instead of on it, these strategic opportunities can become invisible. The entry point gets missed because you're focused on quarterly results, operational fires, and customer demands.


Handy warns that the period around the peak—when you need to be launching your second curve—creates confusion because two competing visions for the future exist simultaneously. Current leaders naturally protect what's working, even as emerging leaders see the need for change.


A matter of ambition


What happens next is up to you: How ambitious do you want to be? How much more in a challenge can you and your team handle? Is there an opportunity too good to ignore? You can optimize and milk the first curve for everything it's worth—sometimes that's absolutely the right call, especially if you're planning an exit. You can explore natural adjacencies and growth opportunities that leverage your existing capabilities. Or you can transform into something new entirely.




References

Charles Handy (2013) The Second Curve: Thoughts on Reinventing Society. Book. Random House Business

Yahoo, Nvidia: How the chipmaker evolved from a gaming startup to an AI giant

yahoo.com (Accessed: 16 November 2025).

The Street, Mar 21, 2024, The Netflix story: From mailbox to mega-cap



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