Why Second Curve Growth is the hardest problem for AEC firms

Second curve strategy isn't about finding the next breakthrough technology. It's about structuring the transition to generate revenue — not just potential.

We analyzed SEC filings, annual reports, and earnings calls across four public AEC companies — WSP, NV5, Jacobs, and Fluor — to trace exactly when each firm pivoted, why, and what the financials showed afterward.

Every AEC firm has a first curve — the core service line that built the business, the geography that defined it, the client base that carried it for years. What comes next is the question that separates firms that compound value over decades from those that plateau, restructure, or disappear entirely.

A review of how some of the largest AEC industry's public companies found — and sometimes lost — their next phase of growth. Four case studies drawn from a decade of public information that marks second and third curves of growth and lessons we can learn from this.

The public markets give us something private firms almost never have: a continuous, auditable record of every strategic decision and its financial consequence. SEC filings, earnings calls, and annual reports create a document trail that lets us trace exactly when a firm pivoted, why, and whether it worked.

The four companies below were chosen because together they illustrate the full range of outcomes — from disciplined compounding to catastrophic miscalculation. Each contains specific, transferable lessons for private AEC firm leaders thinking about capital strategy, growth investment, and ownership transition.

Chart: Acquisitions, divestitures and turning point events per public records. Please verify data on your own.

CASE 1 — WSP GLOBAL

The Deliberate Compounder

Revenue: ~$1.5B (2013) to $11.7B (2024) — 680% growth in eleven years

THREE SUCCESSFULLY EXECUTED CURVES
From Regional Canadian Firm to Global Infrastructure Platform	+680% 2013 → 2024
WSP Global Inc. | TSX: WSP | Founded 1959 as GENIVAR
CURVE 1: 2012–17 Geographic Scale via M&A The Parsons Brinckerhoff acquisition (2014, $1.35B) instantly made WSP one of the world's five largest engineering consultancies. Revenue more than doubled. The 2017 brand consolidation unified 40,000 employees globally. This curve was about buying reach before organic growth could build it. CURVE 2: 2018–22 Environmental, Sustainability & Advisory Louis Berger ($400M, 2018), Golder Associates ($1.14B, 2020), and Wood Group's E&I division ($1.9B, 2022) repositioned WSP from an engineering firm to a professional services platform. The Environment sector reached 30% of net revenues by 2024 — a margin-mix shift the market priced accordingly. CURVE 3: 2023–NOW Energy Transition + Digital POWER Engineers (Oct 2024, $1.78B) doubled WSP's US energy revenue share from ~5% toward a 20% target. In December 2025, WSP announced TRC Companies ($3.3B) — further consolidating US power and energy consulting. The third curve was funded while the second was still growing.
WHAT MADE IT WORK Each curve launched before the previous one plateaued. The 2022–2024 strategic cycle grew net revenue 55%, EBITDA 65%, and net EPS 60% — all above the high end of guidance. Every new curve was structured as a services revenue acquisition, not an equity investment. WSP never bet on upstream technology — it acquired the firms paid to deliver it.

CASE 2 — NV5 GLOBAL

The Focused Acquirer

Revenue: ~$90M (2012 IPO) to $941M (2024) — approximately 10x in twelve years

SUCCESS — WITH A NATURAL LIFECYCLE ENDPOINT
From Infrastructure Rollup to TIC + Technology Platform	~10X 2012 → 2024
NV5 Global Inc. | NASDAQ: NVEE | IPO 2012
CURVE 1: 2012–18 Public-Sector Infrastructure Rollup NV5 went public with ~$90M revenue and an explicit rollup thesis: acquire engineering and testing firms, retain local brand and management, centralise back-office. Revenue compounded at ~34% annually through 2018. Public-sector focus provided mandated, non-discretionary work that insulated against economic cycles. CURVE 2: 2018–22 Geospatial + Technology NV5 began acquiring geospatial analytics and data technology firms — shifting toward higher-margin, technology-enabled services and subscription-eligible revenue streams. This opened international markets and created the analytical infrastructure the infrastructure client base increasingly demanded. CURVE 3: 2022–25 TIC + Data Centers + Subscription Revenue CEO Dickerson Wright named TIC — Testing, Inspection, and Certification — as the strategic anchor: "mandated, non-discretionary" services that provide cyclical insulation. 2024 acquisitions targeted data center commissioning, fire protection, and building digitisation. Gross profit margin reached 51.3%.
THE SIGNAL TO WATCH NV5's acquisition by Acuren in August 2025 validates the platform value the three-curve strategy built, while signalling a natural endpoint: as acquisition pipelines mature, strategic acquirers often deliver the next curve through private ownership. The $1B revenue milestone was reached. The strategy worked.

CASE 3 — JACOBS

The Radical Reshaper

Revenue flat for a decade — by design. Adjusted EPS grew 60%+ in three years.

STRATEGIC TRANSFORMATION — THE SUBTRACTION MODEL
Selling Away Revenue to Build a Better Business	+60% adj. EPS, 3 yrs
Jacobs Solutions Inc. | NYSE: J | Founded 1947
CURVE 1: 2012–18 Full-Service E&C and the Conglomerate Discount Jacobs in 2013 was an $11.8B full-service firm spanning energy, resources, government, infrastructure, and buildings. That breadth was a valuation ceiling. The CH2M Hill acquisition (2017, $3.27B) added depth but compounded the pricing problem: no single growth thesis was legible to markets. CURVE 2: 2019 Second Divestiture: CMS Spun to Amentum In September 2024, Jacobs completed the Reverse Morris Trust spin-off of its Critical Mission Solutions government IT business (~35% of revenues) to Amentum, including a $1B cash dividend to shareholders. The remaining firm — water, environment, transportation, life sciences, advanced manufacturing — carried a $21.8B backlog growing 18.9% year-over-year.
LESSON FROM JACOBS The businesses that achieve the highest transaction multiples are not always the largest ones — they are the most legible ones. A focused, high-margin firm with a clear sector thesis commands materially better terms from buyers and capital partners than a broader firm carrying a conglomerate discount. Deliberate subtraction can be more powerful than addition.

"By separating CMS, Jacobs will streamline our portfolio and transform into a more focused, higher-margin company more closely aligned with key global mega trends."

Bob Pragada, CEO, Jacobs Solutions, 2023

CASE 4 — FLUOR

The Cautionary Arc

Revenue peaked at $27.4B in 2013. In 2024: $16.3B. Still 40% below peak after a decade.

CAUTIONARY — TWO STRUCTURAL ERRORS, A DECADE APART
Fixed-Price Risk and a Nuclear Equity Detour	40% vs. 2023 peak
Fluor Corporation | NYSE: FLR | Founded 1912
MOVE 1: 2012–19 Fixed-Price Concentration and the 2019 Collapse Two fixed-price contracts — the Radford Army Ammunition Plant and the Penguins FPSO — produced cost overruns that management concealed rather than disclosed. A 2023 SEC enforcement action documented earnings overstatements of $51M in 2016, $38M in 2017, and $43M in 2018. When losses were recognised, Fluor posted a $1.7B net loss in fiscal 2019. Financials were restated to 2016. The CEO was replaced. MOVE 2: 2018–25 NuScale Power: An Equity Bet Inside an EPC Balance Sheet Fluor took a majority equity stake in NuScale Power, a small modular reactor developer. NuScale's flagship US customer cancelled its order. The SMR commercialisation timeline slipped. In Q4 2025, Fluor took a $2.0B valuation reduction in a single quarter, driving a quarterly net loss of $1.6B. The company is now divesting the stake.
THE DOUBLE LESSON FROM FLUOR WSP's energy transition curve and Fluor's were pointed at the same macro trend. The difference was structure. WSP acquired engineering consultancies generating existing services revenue from day one. Fluor took a majority equity stake in a pre-revenue technology company. One is an M&A thesis. The other is a venture capital thesis. An EPC firm's balance sheet is built for the former — not the latter.

Second Curve Growth Takeaways for Private Firm Leaders

Start the second curve before you need it

WSP's most important discipline was timing. Each strategic investment began while the previous curve was still growing. Firms that wait until the first curve shows stress are structurally late — the compounding window has already closed.

Revenue growth and value creation are not the same

Fluor had more revenue than WSP, Jacobs, and NV5 combined in 2013. It was not a more valuable business. The firms that created the most value shifted mix toward advisory, recurring, and technology-enabled services. Revenue is visible. Margin mix is the signal.

Subtraction is a legitimate second curve

Jacobs sold its way to a better business, twice. A focused, legible firm commands better terms from buyers and capital partners than a broader firm carrying a conglomerate discount. Deliberate divestiture can be more powerful than acquisition.

Build the second curve as services, not as a bet

Stress-test every second-curve investment: is this a services revenue thesis or an equity investment thesis? These require fundamentally different risk frameworks. Conflating them produced the most expensive failure in this analysis.

Growth strategy starts years before its seen.

Stratwell Partners works with mature AEC firms on growth planning decisions needed to support it. Book a confidential conversation.

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SOURCES & FURTHER READING

– SEC 10-K filings (WSP Global, NV5 Global, Jacobs Solutions, Fluor Corporation)

– Earnings press releases; WSP Q4 2024 earnings call

– SEC Enforcement Action Re: Fluor (Release No. 34-98292, 2023)

– Wikipedia acquisition histories; companiesmarketcap.com; stockanalysis.com

– Construction Dive

– Seeking Alpha. WSP revenue converted from CAD at prevailing annual rates. Jacobs 2024 reflects continuing operations post-Amentum separation.

DISCLAIMER: This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or legal advice. Please verify accuracy of the data when using for your purposes.